Right now, each video service—be it Netflix or Comcast—is an island. Right now, viewers have plenty of help sorting though individual catalogs. Netflix, for instance, uses an algorithm that translates viewers’ ratings into suggestions, which are reportedly accurate within half a star 75 percent of the time. Comcast is also starting to implement recommendations for its cable subscribers. But each video service—be it Netflix or Comcast—is an island; no matter how precise their recommendations get, they still exclude programming from other sources. That may not be the case for much longer. Sam Rosen, a technology analyst at ABI Research, says that in the coming years, smart set-top boxes will automatically learn preferences. These services will keep tabs on a viewer’s choices and make recommendations based on them, the same way that Google and Bing use a person’s search history to rank search results. Video recommendations could eventually surpass the sensitivity of Web-based search engines, and adjust for each person in a household. In the average U.S. home, four people share the same TV screen. Disparate ages, tastes, and interests mean suggestions based on a single set might range from Dinosaur Train to The Grudge. Microsoft Research, for example, has developed Kinect-based facial recognition that will help the console detect who’s just plopped down on the sofa. From there, the system could select movies and shows specifically for that person, providing each viewer with a custom, automatic listing of what he wants to see. No surfing necessary.
